C.S. Lewis, the famous theologian and author of the Narnia chronicles involving talking lions and mice, once said that there are two equal and opposite errors that people can make when it comes to demons: to disbelieve in their existence entirely, or to have an unhealthy or obsessive interest in them.
But this column isn’t about whether or not C.S. Lewis was right about that issue, nor is it about the supernatural – but it is about something almost as ephemeral: that common human desire to predict the future.
There are those who consider reading an opinion poll to be little more accurate than attempting to read tea leaves or trusting the latest tabloid horoscope. There are those who seek the adrenaline rush of every opinion poll, noting in hushed tones that one party has ‘overtaken’ another when they pop up a single percentage point ahead in one poll.
Polls are like C.S. Lewis’ view of the supernatural: there are two equal but opposite errors which can be made – to become obsessed with them as though they were some kind of oracle, or to put them into the bin and disregard them entirely.
A poll in 2025 does not tell us what will happen in 2028 or 2029, any more than measuring the wind today could tell you whether or not there will be a storm a week on Tuesday. Polls tell us which way the wind is blowing. They show us trends: who is surging; who is falling, and who is becalmed.
Over 100 consecutive polls across every opinion poll company have shown Reform UK in the lead for the next General Election, by up to an 18% lead (Find Out Now, 17-18 September). Does that mean that “Reform are 18% ahead in the polls”? Um, no. Cherry-picking the high-water mark from a single poll is the kind of thing that a spin doctor would do: great for boosting a party’s morale, but we’re back to the tea leaves when it comes to accuracy.
We can pick up Reform’s growth over time by comparing poll to poll, and if we compare polls by the same polling company with the same methodology it shows where momentum lies. Reform surged, and took the lead, but if anything they’re falling back just a touch over the last month or so. That’s to be expected: most surges lead to some kind of regression afterwards. An initial enthusiasm gets dampened to an extent.
Then there’s the Green Party. It’s in mid-surge at the moment. It’s on 16% in the polls (but only if you cherry-pick a single poll, so it really isn’t). That’s around the level where it would start to pick up a significant number of seats. If it surges further, even a small drop back would still leave them in serious contention at the next General Election.
All of this leads to a serious problem. If we now have five major parties in England, plus Plaid Cymru in Wales and the SNP in Scotland, the next General Election will be messy. At the Caerphilly by-election, a seat Labour had held since time immemorial, it became a straight Plaid-Reform fight with Labour finishing on 11%.
Today, we don’t fully know (in any given seat) who is likely to win. The average member of the public won’t know.
Reform is leading at the moment, that much is clear. Will that survive contact with a General Election campaign, extra scrutiny, and tactical voting? I’m not sure. We also don’t really know who’s in second place. Is it Labour? The Conservatives? Will the Greens’ momentum take them into second? Or is it the Liberal Democrats, who (although fifth in vote share) have a habit of taking a disproportionate number of seats because their vote is so efficiently distributed?
Duverger’s Law suggests that, under our electoral system, everything trends to a two-party process. I suspect that Law is now broken. We have more choices than ever before, and we certainly won’t have a stale 2001-style election in which there’s really not that much difference between the policies on offer.
Whatever is happening, there’s a mess coming down the tracks. The next General Election could be one of the strangest in history.
My personal pet theory is that government is more difficult today than it ever has been. Society is so complex that it’s infinitely harder for a government to be competent than it was 50 years ago. Governments become unpopular faster, and that makes the whole political landscape unstable.
Where will we be after the next General Election? It seems that none of us have an accurate crystal ball. JWA.
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