The Silly '3 Million Argument' Explained by Prof. Tim Congdon.

The nonsense about ‘isolation costing jobs.’

 Intellectual flabbiness is a depressing characteristic of the Europeanism of the Whitehall and Westminster policy-making establishment. Politicians and civil servants put out low-grade analyses to justify the UK’s continued membership of the European Union, and fail to back them up with facts and figures. Unfortunately, they have ready access to the media and to a degree can manage the public debate. It is therefore of the first importance that supporters of British independence refute such arguments as the policy-making establishment does present. Perhaps the most familiar claim is that three million (or sometimes three-and-a-half million) jobs would be at risk if the UK were to leave the EU. To quote from Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats, in an interview on BBC Radio Four on 31^st October last year,

There are three million of our fellow citizens, men and women, in this country whose jobs rely directly on our participation and role and place in what is after all the world's largest borderless single market with 500 million consumers right on our doorstep... isolation costs jobs, costs growth, costs people's livelihood.

This claim has a superficial plausibility because of its appeal to geography. But this appeal to geography is a misunderstanding. Indeed, the whole argument is invalid and must be refuted.

 Where does the three million figure come from? Roughly speaking, 30 million people are in employment in the UK. Meanwhile exports of goods amount to some 20% of our national income, with about half of these going to Europe. On the face of it, six million jobs ‘rely on exports’ in total and three million on exports to the EU by itself. However, appearances are deceptive.

Our departure from the EU will mean continuing trade as they HAVE to trade freely with us because:

1) They have stated this.
2) Dozens of non-EU countries already have such an arrangement.
3) We are still members of the EEA.
4) They cannot afford to lose us as we have a massive trading deficit with the EU.
Furthermore, our burgeoning non-EU trade will open up new markets which will GAIN jobs.
All this before considering the vast savings which can be made by being non members.