My father-in-law was a miner, and one of my wife’s earliest
memories is receiving food parcels during the strike.
So believe me, I understand where the antipathy towards
Thatcher comes from. But just before the strike, in 1983, Newcastle Central
voted for Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives (as did Darlington and
Tynemouth).
The first reaction of anyone who grew up under Thatcher will
be shock – how is this even possible? I wonder how many readers will head to
Wikipedia to check that fact for themselves. The answer is, that Labour had
chosen a Corbyn-style radical, Michael Foot, as leader.
The Labour Party was out of power for a generation, and it
could be headed that way again. Whilst they won Newcastle Central back quickly,
Darlington and Tynemouth took a little longer.
This time, it’s not Newcastle Central that will be at risk
to the Tories – but seats like Hartlepool under threat to
UKIP.
With the election of Jeremy
Corbyn as leader of the Labour
Party, the whole character
of British politics has changed.
In one sense, that’s a good thing for democracy. There was a
time, not so long ago, when the policies of Labour, Conservatives and Liberal
Democrats were so similar to one another that only UKIP was offering anything
substantially different to the status quo.
Lack of real choice leads to inability to effect change;
that in turn leads to apathy, and apathy to low turnout at elections. In that
sense, I welcome the change in Labour leadership.
In another, the thought of a 1970s-style tax and spend
economy (which had inflation running over 25%) is rather chilling. You don’t
help the poorest people by making the country poorer, you do it by making the
country richer. We shouldn’t hand the Falklands to Argentina, or give up most of
the country’s ability to defend itself.
There are problems, too, with a radical leading a
non-radical party.
With most of the top talent in the Labour Party refusing to
serve in a frontbench position under Corbyn, he’s resorted to appointing a
convicted arsonist (sentenced to 16 months in prison) as his Education spokesman
in the Lords.
His new shadow chancellor has, under pressure, offered a
lukewarm apology for pro-terrorist comments.
I won’t rehearse the full list of Corbyn gaffes; there isn’t
space in this column. I will merely say this: he is auditioning for the job of
Prime Minister. Things you can get away with as a backbench campaigner won’t
pass muster as Leader of the Opposition. Divided parties lose elections,
badly.
Ultimately, though, the reason the Conservatives won so many
Labour strongholds in 1983 was economics.
When you’re a backbench MP in opposition, you can get away
with proposing a string of bizarre uncosted measures and back it up with
fairytale economics. Sooner or later, though, you have to grow
up.
I know the feeling: UKIP’s 2010 manifesto felt great, but
had more holes than Swiss cheese. We had to grow up, and we did. Our 2015
manifesto was professionally, independently costed – unlike any other manifesto
of any other Party.
Yet Jeremy Corbyn seems wedded to the idea of saving, and
spending, massive amounts of money through clamping down on tax avoidance and
tax evasion. I’m all for clamping down on those things, but a dose of realism is
necessary. The astronomical sums suggested cannot be raised for the
exchequer.
He may have thought of a catchy phrase in People’s
Quantitative Easing (PQE) but history teaches us that printing money to boost
public spending doesn’t work. It caused mass inflation and poverty in Zimbabwe
and Weimar Germany. It caused the Latin American debt crisis of the
1970s.
There is an initial attraction and appeal of new ideas. Once
they’ve been tested in debate and during a General Election campaign, their
flaws become obvious. Who would want to risk a return to the kind of economy we
had in the 1970s?
Back in 1983, the people of Newcastle Central were so scared
that they elected a Conservative MP. In 2020, there will be another show in
town. Those unhappy with Labour may well find a new home in the pro-working
class UKIP.
Labour have not learned the lessons of history. Those that
do not, are doomed to repeat it.
Jonathan Arnott is UKIP MEP for the North East. Chronicle.
