Dominic Raab.

 Blogger:

When the Tories take a real thumping in the May elections - as they surely will - Boris will be propelled out of office if he has not already gone before then.

Even now in the Ukraine crisis, with all of his better leadership skills showing through, 'Party-gate' is still likely to be the coup de grâce which, in one form or another, ends his tenure at Number 10.

You cannot overestimate the damage that a few ill-conceived parties during lockdown have caused the PM. Huge numbers who have lost relatives or friends to Covid are embittered and determined to punish Boris at the ballot box. 

Others, who detest politicos who see themselves as not having to follow their own rules they had put in place for us plebs, will also vote against him.

If he is fined for these breeches - it is most difficult to see how he can survive - and the damage if he does could be inestimable.

The problem arises when looking for a replacement. Rishi Sunak has soiled his nest with a wretched Spring Statement; rumours abound about parties; his disloyalty to the PM with his "I wouldn't have done that" remark - have all surely combined to cook his goose.

Liz Truss - always a slightly suspect character having once been anti-Brexit - seemed to have repaired this damage by bringing multiple trade deals into the UK but has now lost all impetus. She has failed to tame the EU over the N. Ireland protocols whilst lacking the courage to invoke Article 16. Add to this her reported half a million pound waste of public money on her trip Down Under and she is stymied.

Gove is unpopular. End of!

IDS is deemed to be as boring as Starmer. Maybe the country wants someone boring but it would be perceived as a risk to look backwards. (A risk I'd not be too unhappy to take.)

Pritti Patel? - Well, I like her but she has too many enemies.

Good-looking; hugely intelligent; finger on the pulse; measured; scores few own goals and not a 'wet' - Raab, the Deputy PM and Justice Minister, is surely coming back into the picture.

Incidentally - the pool of possible new leaders is reducing rapidly.