Ignore the French: Net Zero is destroying British industry, not Brexit.
Our fixation with decarbonisation will be economically ruinous. On the continent, it could be even worse.
Sectors will go into terminal decline. Traditional industries will close. And blue-collar workers will lose forever the kind of well-paid jobs that could support a family. France’s youthful new Prime Minister Gabriel Attal took some time off yesterday from working out how to deal with the siege of Paris to blame Brexit for the decline of Britain’s heavy industry, and to warn that France could go the same way if it loosened its ties with Brussels.
For a 34-year-old who has only been in the job for a couple of weeks, Attal certainly doesn’t lack self-confidence. Like his mentor, President Macron, he has the answer to just about everything. In the French Parliament this week, he tore into Britain’s decision to leave the EU. “Last week, because of Brexit, the last blast furnaces in Great Britain closed. Steel is no longer produced in the UK. In France, on the contrary, thanks in particular to Europe, industry is coming back,” he said. Sure, it is an argument that may play well with French politicians. Whacking the English is always a good way to assert your authority in the Assemblée Nationale. The trouble is, Attal has got this one wrong on two counts.
First, there is very little evidence that our departure from the EU has made much difference to industry one way or another. After all, we are doing just as well, or poorly, as our rivals on the other side of the channel. France’s industrial output is estimated to have fallen by 0.5pc in the fourth quarter of last year, and expanded by just 0.1pc in the quarter before that. German industrial output is in freefall, and it is now more than 9pc below its pre-pandemic peak. In fact, although it may come as a surprise to Attal, the UK is now a larger manufacturing nation than France, with annual output of $272 billion compared with $262 billion for our closest neighbour, according to figures from Make UK. The last time I checked, both France and Germany were still inside the EU. It is hard to conclude from those figures that British manufacturing has suffered significantly, from our departure.
Next, and more importantly, it was Net Zero that killed off steel making in Port Talbot. The government decided to give Tata Steel £500 million to close down its traditional blast furnaces, and replace them with electric ones, which, while they generate less carbon dioxide, also employ far fewer workers. If there was more flexibility in the target, and some recognition that the UK was the first major developed country to halve its emissions, the plants would have been perfectly viable for many more years. At the same time, sky high energy prices, demented planning rules, and very soon carbon taxes as well, all demanded by the Net Zero fanatics, are making the operating environment tougher for industry than at any time over the last 50 years.
The irony is that Attal, along with the mandarins in Brussels that he champions, is even more committed to accelerating the drive to Net Zero than British politicians are. Indeed, the mini-Macron is facing angry protests from farmers across France this week over his government’s fanatical imposition of climate targets. At the same time, the EU itself is doubling down on commitment to Net Zero, with the Commission set to announce a new target next week to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 90pc by 2040, a mandate that would require a vast round of spending, and huge taxes on industry.
Attal’s comments may have been driven by concerns over the forthcoming European Parliament elections, which polls indicate will be bruising for Emmanuel Macron’s Renew alliance. Marine Le Pen’s hard-Right National Rally (RN) may need to break EU rules in order to fulfil its agenda – which may elicit support from the farmers currently camping out on Autoroute 6. Polls put the RN a full 10 points ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renew alliance ahead of this summer’s European Parliament elections.
It is easy to blame Brexit for anything that goes wrong. But in reality, it is Net Zero that is killing off British industry. DT.
