Research by Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft claims Ukip defector Douglas Carswell will win the seat with 56 per cent of the vote in the Essex constituency. Mr Carswell’s former party, the Tories, are second on 24 per cent, with Labour third on 16 per cent and the Liberal Democrats languishing on two per cent. The by-election coincides with the Prime Minister’s 48th birthday, and just a week after the Conservatives’ autumn conference closes. Express.
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