Exclusive Theresa May: Britain faces 'tough times' but can enjoy a 'better, brighter future' outside the EU. Telegraph.
Hmm. Does she mean it? Well, I am not politically naive and I know
better than to put my trust in human beings but I always, perhaps rather
cynically, use the phrase Quis bono? when trying to read
motivations.
The Tories could easily find themselves in grave electoral
problems.
They have however, one clear pathway by which to escape these. They
must achieve a Brexit which will satisfy those who voted for it OR they
will pay a mighty price in 2020. Even under FPTP, UKIP would take Tory
seats.
After much thought, I am less fearful of an immediate General
Election than previously. There can be little doubt that it would bring a huge
Tory majority and passing the necessary legislation would be a breeze.
Do also remember that the Tory membership tends to be far more
anti-EU than pro. This is a significant point for many remainist Tory
MPs may do not wish to end up being deselected at branch level!
And if Labour do not take on 'gaining the best Brexit possible' in
their campaign - they could see their seats reduced to single figures as Jeremy
or replacement takes on board all of the bile and scorn which had previously
belonged to Cameron. Again, UKIP could start picking up the
pieces.
Labour will now be DESPERATE to avoid an election and would have to
be beyond suicidal to try to 'turn the result' in some way in the House of
Commons.
The Brexit WILL now go through, IMHO, it is all about using our
muscle ruthlessly in the negotiating phase.
Never forget - the EU needs our trade MORE than we need theirs. An
amicable solution has to be possible.
If that is not achieved, it is more likely that it will foment
further departures as the true, malevolent face of The EU is revealed and
exposed.
I hesitate to give advice to Labour but here it is: support the
Brexit negotiations now and wait until 2020 before deciding what to do next.
When you see it is succeeding - you can magnanimously shift to a bit of
realpolitik by accepting and actually joining in our unerring pathway
towards a better future - over which we shall have a substantial measure of
control - or, alternatively, you can wither away on the vine.
The death of Labour really is a possibilty.
