Catalonia and Scotland at core of Europe's geopolitical conundrum.
A demonstration for Catalonian independence in Spain. (Photo: Day Donaldson)
In recent months, the Catalan autonomous government has taken unprecedented political steps towards independence from Spain, angering Madrid and putting EU leaders on edge.
Meanwhile, the Scottish government has doubled down on its bet for independence by calling for a new referendum in 2018.
Pro-EU SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon pictured in front of an EU flag. (Photo: Scottish government/Flickr)
Together, Scotland and Catalonia have spun a complicated web of juxtaposed geopolitical interests, running in parallel to the already complex Brexit negotiations.
Catalonia, located in the north-east of Spain, is one of the richest regions in Europe. Its capital, Barcelona, is a vibrant global metropolis, ranking among Europe’s top 10 tourist destinations.
The region has always asserted itself as being distinct from the rest of Spain.
Catalan independence
In the last five years, a pro-independence movement has gained a parliamentary majority, which is determined to secede from Spain to form an independent Catalan state. In order to do so, it has unilaterally called a binding referendum, which is to take place before the end of the year.
Until recently, the geopolitical leverage of Catalonia has been weak: a strong European Union, with Spain as one of its most reliable members, has treated the independence movement with cold indifference, and sometimes with overt rejection.
For example, during a recent official visit to Spain, Antonio Tajani, the president of the European Parliament, said: “Those who act against the Spanish Constitution are also acting against the European order”.
Then came Crimea, Brexit, Turkey, Trump and populist electoral insurgencies in the Netherlands, France and Germany. All of a sudden, the future of the European Union seemed much less certain. For the first time, Catalonia’s unofficial diplomacy was given a good set of cards to play.
The success of anti-globalisation movements, which foresee a revival of nation state ideologies, caught politicians in Barcelona off guard.
The Catalan pro-independence movement, similar to the one in Scotland, is largely pro-European. Driven by this tradition, the large Catalan political parties have held onto their pro-European views, keeping in line with the European centrist view of further strengthening the EU institutions.
Madrid anti-secession
Madrid’s reaction has been to double down on its anti-secessionist position. The Spanish government lead by Mariano Rajoy, which has the support of the two biggest parties, has insisted on blocking any kind of referendum on Catalan independence.
On March 13th, the Superior Court of Justice of Catalonia sentenced the former Catalan president, Artur Mas, to a ban from holding public office for two years.
President of the Catalan National Assembly Carme Forcadell and several former members of the government are also facing trial for organising a non-binding consultation on independence on the 9th of November of 2014, and for allowing a sovereignty vote in the Catalan parliament without Madrid’s permission.
The level of distrust between Madrid and Barcelona is rising rapidly.
After the approval of the Catalan budget (which solidified the pro-independence majority in power, with the support of the Eurosceptic far-left), Madrid terminated “Operación Dialogo”, a central government operation aimed at improving relations with Barcelona.
In response, the Catalan parliament passed a motion in March allowing for the possibility of an immediate vote on independence in the Catalan parliament, which intended to give the Spanish government less time to prepare for such a vote and impede any legal challenges against it.
Catalan government officials are increasingly worried that Madrid is unwilling to compromise and might be playing a radical end game.
This would mean intervening in Catalan institutions, overtaking the educational and police system, and gradually trying to strengthen Spanish nationalism in the region.
Leaked discussions between the former chief of the anti-fraud office in Catalonia and the former interior minister in Spain appeared to confirm these suspicions.
The first was recorded saying that they will “crush the Catalan health system”, and the latter was caught discussing ways to politically destroy their political opponents in Barcelona.
Meanwhile, Catalonia has been expanding its scope in search of foreign allies, and finding them in unexpected places.
It has long been rumoured that Catalonia and Israel have been keeping friendly diplomatic contacts. These contacts are grounded in Israel’s need for Mediterranean allies, and in the currently lukewarm Israeli-Spanish relations, exemplified by the Spanish vote in the recent UN resolution against Israeli settlements. EU OBSERVER.
