Theresa May has put herself in the worst negotiating position in history
It’s reported that Theresa May has agreed to pay the European Union
€45-€55 billion as a ‘divorce bill’ when we leave the European Union. To put it
into perspective, that’s around £1,000 for every adult in the UK.
I desperately want Britain to leave the EU. It’s not just about the
economic benefits that we could reap if we were to do it properly, but also
about regaining our freedom to make our own laws, having full control of our
borders, abandoning failed EU policies in agriculture & fisheries, and
rejecting any form of EU Army (I wonder whether Nick Clegg is now going to
apologise for claiming that was a fantasy, like he had to apologise over tuition
fees?).
If we were to leave the European Union with no deal, the World Bank
claims our trade with the EU could drop by 2%. That’s 2% of 12.6% of our GDP, or
potentially 0.25% of our national income. We currently spend 0.7% on overseas
aid alone. Even if the overly-gloomy World Bank prediction were true (and it
isn’t), the 0.25% drop could be offset by no longer paying our EU membership fee
(gross 1%, and net 0.4%, of our national income). It would be mitigated by an
uptick in the 70%+ or so of our economy that is internal – British businesses
trading with each other would no longer have to be subject to clunky EU
legislation. It would be mitigated by an uptick in our trade with the rest of
the world once we regain our ability to sign trade deals (a less spineless
government would be opening negotiations right now, ready to sign on Brexit Day
and steal a match on the EU), which is already slightly more than our trade with
the European Union.
That ‘no deal’ prospect isn’t what UKIP wants. It’s not even what Labour
or Conservatives want. It’s not what the European Union wants, it’s not what
business wants – and certainly not what the German car industry wants. Nobody
wants a ‘no-deal’ scenario. What we do want, however, is the final deal to be
better than a no-deal scenario. Protecting that 0.25% of GDP is worthwhile,
laudable even, but not absolutely paramount.
But for all of her talk that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’, she’s
agreed to hand over £1,000 of your money just to open talks. That money comes
with no guarantee of anything tangible in return. That strikes me as the worst
negotiating position in history. May started out holding most of the aces: as
net importers from the EU, a ‘no-deal’ scenario would mean more money coming to
the UK exchequer in tariffs than going to the EU. The UK’s global place in
academia, research, security and intelligence should be another ace. The ability
to walk away without paying a penny, leaving the EU budget over-subscribed if we
give them nothing? Another ace.
Instead, the EU has been allowed to dictate the pace. In any negotiation,
you have to come to the table confidently as equals. You have to be prepared to
walk away, temporarily or permanently. Want the best deal on a new car? Try
walking towards the showroom’s exit door and the impossible suddenly becomes
possible.
Theresa May has been bullied, allowing the EU to set out the process for
withdrawal and present the British government with a series of hoops to jump
through. Instead of resisting, May has complied just like a seal jumping through
a hoop. Instead of playing her high cards, using them as leverage to obtain what
the UK wants from the EU, she’s meekly surrendered every single one of them.
She’s not been helped, admittedly, by a Labour Party that has consistently been
little more than a mouthpiece for the European Union’s negotiating position.
It’s almost as though they want negotiations to go badly to give them an excuse
to criticise the government. Oppositions should oppose, of course, but they
shouldn’t conspire against the interests of the British people.
Theresa May has just undertook the biggest sellout of British taxpayers
in my lifetime, goaded into it by those who haven’t fully got to grips with the
referendum result. Some of them would still, even now, have us remain in the
European Union despite the way they’ve treated us. In any divorce, surely, if
your ex-partner becomes nastier, that isn’t a good sign to suggest that you
ought to get back together. Brexit: right decision, appalling negotiation from
the Tories.
