Prof Tim Congdon On South Shields By-Election.

I have two comments. First, if UKIP does do well in South Shields, one of the most interesting statistics will be the swings from the other parties. More precisely, will the Labour vote rise or fall as a share of the total? Suppose that UKIP takes 15% of the vote, in line with national opinion polls at present and assuming there is no special protest vote. Will all of Labour, the Conservatives and the LibDems lose roughly 5% of the vote? Or will the Labour vote hold up, with the Conservatives and LibDems the big losers? If the Labour vote holds up, the common interpretation will be that UKIP’s rise will facilitate a Labour landslide in 2015, with much hand-wringing etc. from the Conservatives.

Secondly, UKIP’s performance will depend partly on whether the BNP stands or not. Apart from its vulnerability to the charge of being racist and generally loathsome, the BNP is at present is in some organizational disarray. The BNP contested the seat in 2010, having not done so in the previous general election. It took over 6% of the vote, preventing quite large swings from Labour and the LibDems going mostly to the Conservatives.