The thing is that the Lib Dems are on a massive downward spiral. If Farage wins the debate - he mobilises his supporters and wins new ones. This would even happen in the event of 'a bloody draw'.
Clegg cannot lose, however. Win, lose or draw - he still wins albeit in a much smaller way. 'How so?' do I hear you ask?
Well, Clegg's aims are much more modest. He can expect to win hardly any support for the EU from a less-than-gruntled nation which is utterly fed up with the cursed thing.
All he is wanting to achieve is to be seen as a 'mighty standard bearer - against all the odds - for the European Union.
The idea is that he will then win back the europhile minority - the real Lib Dems. It would be a small victory but might just prevent the total extinction of the party. It may be that being in the coalition will cancel this out anyway.
Personally, I do not think that the Lib Dems will lose all their EU seats 74 days from now but I expect them to perhaps hang on to single seats in regions where there are many candidates and where it is pretty difficult not to take one seat - namely: London, the South East, the North West and an outside chance in the South West.
It is difficult to see how retaining 4 seats could be 'spun' as anything other than a massive defeat.
