Over 40 years ago, two Leeds University academics researched voting
behaviour (Political Change in
Britain, David Butler and Donald Stokes). The results of their study were
elucidating.
They found that the main reason why people voted for a particular party
was because “they had always voted that way”. In effect, an unwavering and
unthinking endorsement of party politics.
The second most important factor was, and remains, the most intriguing –
“party image”. And this may be projected, fairly or unfairly, not only by what
the parties say or do, but by the way in which they are represented (or
misrepresented) in newspapers, by broadcasters and, indeed, on the burgeoning
“social media” of the internet.
The party candidate had only marginal influence on voting behaviour –
unless he or she was a prominent or personally popular
figure.
The by-election was the exception, because “protest votes” were prominent
and “third parties” (like the old Liberal Party) often did well.
YP.
