There is, David Cameron told us, an "urgency and frankness about how the
European Union must change". Reform, he said in his famous Bloomberg
speech, needs to be "fundamental and
far-reaching". And, he went on to say: "I believe the best way to do this will
be in a new Treaty".
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How long ago those words, spoken little more than two years ago, now
seem.Now we know that there will be no treaty
changes. All that talk at Bloomberg were just
that. Talk.
Yet Britain's relationship with the EU is defined by treaties, not talk.
Not even the most earnest, well crafted prime ministerial speeches matter one
jot if they do not translate into treaty change.
You would not buy a new home on the basis of spoken promises from an
estate agent. You would do so on the basis of what was written in the deeds. Why
should any one buy into prime ministerial promises of a new deal with the EU
when there will be no treaty change?
How, one wonders, did Downing Street get into such a
mess?
Because, to be blunt, the rest of Europe knows that Mr Cameron is
bluffing. The Prime Minister wants to keep Britain in the EU, and is
willing to do so at almost any price.
That means that for Frau Merkel and co there is no need to budge. The
Prime Minister's negotiating team are reduced to asking for a few white rabbits,
which the Prime Minister can theatrically conjure up at the last minute to make
it look like he has got something.
Imagine the scene around the conference table in Berlin or
Brussels.
Merkel and the rest of you are fretting about more Greece bail outs. The
entire monetary union project is starting to look like catastrophe. A quarter of
a million migrants look set to make it across the
Mediterranean.
Then in blusters David Cameron, certain of his own charm. He tells you he
wants change, yet you know he will lead the campaign in his own country to
accept whatever terms you offer him. Why would you offer him
much?
You would nod politely. Smile. Then move on to deal with the next crisis
undermining your grand Europe project.
This, tragically, is the sort of shoddy statecraft that leaves the mayor
of Calais laying down terms to the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. We
ought to be doing so much better that
this.
