Professor Tim Congdon.

First, I update the analysis I gave in October of local election results. In November UKIP tended to achieve rather more than 20% of the vote, where it stood. As in the October e-mail, I insist that the ‘main’ opinion polls – which have tended in recent weeks to give the same vote share to UKIP and the Liberal Democrats – are misleading. In terms of actual votes cast in real elections, UKIP is scoring 60% - 80% more than the LibDems. (The lead depends on how the numbers are presented.) UKIP is not scoring as well as in the May 2013 county council elections, but the omens for the May 2014 European elections are good. (UKIP has tended to achieve a vote share in European elections at least 10% above its vote share in opinion polls, general elections and so on.See the PDF file attached for further discussion. On this basis UKIP is heading for a 30%, perhaps even a 35%, vote share in May 2014.Incidentally, the analysis in my note accords fully with the results the Survation poll in three marginals, commissioned by Alan Bown  http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/03/tories-behind-labour-level-with-ukip-key-marginals 

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/thanet_extra/news/ukip-support-to-soar-poll-9479/. The Conservatives are now splitting the UKIP vote, which may result in Labour winning.