A cynic's guide to winning an EU referendum
for a pro-European Union prime minister. So far, David Cameron is following my
simple, step-by-step guide to the letter. How much longer will it last, I
wonder?
1. Announce that
there will be an EU referendum years in advance, when it looks like you won't be
in power to push such a referendum through.
2. Spend years
doing nothing to renegotiate with the EU, on the basis that the referendum
probably won't happen anyway.
3. When this plan
inexplicably fails and you fluke a General Election win through fear of the SNP,
it's time to move to Plan B.
4. Don't ask for
anything the British people actually want, as part of your proposed
renegotiation. Anything we want, the EU won't let us have.
5. Ask for things
which are generally meaningless or semantics.
6. Find a couple of
minor issues that the other leaders will fight you on.
7. Win those
battles, largely because the concessions involved are tiny.
8. Come back from
Brussels trumpeting the 'success' of your renegotiation with the
EU.
9. Tell the British
people how amazing your 'new deal' actually is.
10. Make sure that
the referendum question makes no mention of the two alternatives: EU membership,
or free trade agreement. Mention only the EU. People vote for the status quo if
you don't make the alternative clear.
11. Who should vote
in the referendum? There's a clear strategy to ensure this is weighted in favour
of the pro-EU camp:
a) Announce early that the decision on Britain's future
should be one for British citizens
b) Set the earliest possible date for the referendum to be
held
c) Wait for the pro-EU House of Lords to amend the
Referendum Bill to allow more people to vote
d) Tell everyone that your timescale won't be derailed, so
you won't wait to use the Parliament Act to force the legislation
through
e) Cave in to the demands, allowing a wider electorate to
vote
12. Now the real
campaign starts. You've got to portray yourself as a eurosceptic who's been
persuaded that actually, we now have a great deal with
Europe.
13. Whatever you
do, do not tell anyone that you have another Plan B up your sleeve. You know
perfectly well that you could get a good free trade deal with the EU if we were
outside it, but don't let that one slip. Make people feel that they'd somehow be
isolated if we left.
13. Scaremongering
and denigration will now take you the rest of the way: repeat a big enough lie
often enough, and people will believe it. Now where have I heard that phrase
before?
14. Scaremonger
about non-existent jobs that depend on EU membership. They don't, of course,
they depend merely on trade with the EU which would be unthreatened if we were
to leave.
15. Scaremonger
about every 'good thing' that the EU does for us, and forget that every benefit
of the EU is only a benefit because we've handed the power over from Westminster
to do it better ourselves.
16. Denigrate your
opponents. They're extremists, the lot of them. Racists perhaps (the closet
variety). Of course they are; they don't agree with YOU, Dave. The people who
want to trade with the wider world and emerging markets, avoiding insular
narrow-minded EU protectionism? Why, they must be little
Englanders!
17. If a newspaper
goes against the EU, it's a gutter tabloid and the press should be more
responsible. If it comes out in favour of the EU, that's responsible
journalism.
18. It has to be
socially unacceptable to accept you want to leave the EU, so smear early and
smear often. Imply that a 'No' vote is a vote for racism, to prevent more people
putting their heads above the parapet.
19. By now you're
in the home straight. All it takes is a little work with the Electoral
Commission, a bit of funding for 'information projects' from the European
Commission, and your side will have more money than the 'out'
side.
20. If all else
fails, turn it into a race issue by pointing out that Nigel Farage's wife is
German as though that exposes some fantastical hypocrisy on Ukip's part. After
all, that's always been the europhiles' tried and tested method in the
past.
