- 29. If the deal goes down *now*, perhaps so does the PM and government. 30. We may know the *final outcome* we want from Brexit, but it's not entirely clear what level of government defeat in the Commons tonight would give the best practical chance to achieve that.
- 27. If the PM were to lose by (say) 30-50 votes tonight, then she might hope to be able to turn those votes around. The EU might believe her, and we end up with a short extension before her deal is approved. 28. If she loses by 100+, then the deal itself is probably toast.
- 25. I suspect some Brexiteers who want No Deal might be flaky enough to change their vote, but not until after tomorrow. Not until after Parliament has had its chance to vote on No Deal. 26. To do that U-turn, they'd need to say that their No Deal plan had been voted down.
- 22. I expect Parliament to vote against No Deal tomorrow and then for an extension on Thursday, if events don't overtake it. 23. If May is still PM, she'll doubtless seek an extension of <2 months to (say) May 22nd. 24. This won't help her much, unless tonight's vote is close.
- 21. There's a possibility of some kind of technocratic, temporary government requesting an extension before triggering an election. It becomes a real possibility that Parliament would hijack the process in such a way, though this would go down like a lead balloon with voters.
- 18. A General Election would be such a reason: it could deliver clarity. 19. But there are problems: would Parliament necessarily vote for one? 20. A motion of no confidence in the government is possible, but in the absence of a government the UK would leave without a deal.
- 14. If it's another heavy defeat, where can she go next? 15. May insists that this is 'a good deal'. It is not. No Deal would beat her Bad Deal. 16. The obvious outcome is a General Election. 17. The EU will not permit an extension to A50 unless there's a reason for it.
- 12. I still expect May to lose tonight. The scale of the defeat (if it is a defeat) will determine what happens next. 13. If it's a close vote, she may easily hang on, seek a short extension of A50, and hope to force a 'cliff edge' so that she can ramrod her deal through.
- 9. If the backstop were the ONLY issue with May's deal, Brexiteers could swallow this fudge. The problem was, everyone fixated on the backstop and forgot the rest. 10. I have a huge problem with the OTHER 585 pages of this deal. 11. A bad day for May to have a croaky voice...
- 7. They've plugged all the smaller holes in the backstop but they haven't sorted the biggest one. 8. The unilateral declaration does actually mean something. As EU won't have challenged at the time, we'd be able to rely on it if (for example) challenging under Vienna Convention.
- 5. What was agreed last night protects us against 'bad faith' negotiations leading to permanent backstop, but it doesn't protect against the situation where the UK and the EU simply want different things. 6. Trouble is, that situation is the most likely cause of a problem.
- 3. The Attorney General's legal advice is odd. Not inaccurate, just strange. It seems to have been written in such a way as to be as unhelpful as possible for May. 4. The various tweaks do have legal effect, but there's a huge hole in them: what if the UK and EU simply disagree?
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Current State of Brexit - (In Reverse Order!)
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Big news. The 'oldest gorilla teeth' have been discovered in Ethiopia. They have been dated as '10 million years old". Str... -
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11905019/LEO-MCKINSTRY-infantile-demonstrators-France-refuse-face-economic-reality.html
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-__pY6Dp5M FRAUD! Nothing less. EXPOSED!