Mole-in-the-know has spoken to an election analyst who understands in fine detail how our system works.It is not good news for Boris if his Tories only have a small lead on Election Day.
In 2017, the Tories won a majority with a lead of around 2.4%. A similar lead in the coming vote would mean that the Tories would lose some 30 seats.
This comes as a result of different voting patterns over different types of seat AND the way in which The Lib Dems will put a spanner in the works.
Even with a 4% lead, it is highly improbable that the Tories would have sufficient seats to form a government with an absolute majority.
5% makes that majority just possible. 6% makes such a majority probable but not guaranteed.
Boris needs a 7% lead. Without that, Brexit is at risk.
The polls currently have Boris with a stronger lead but who can say what will happen in the coming weeks?
The Brexit Party will threaten this outcome as they will stand in a number of seats which will inevitably stay with Labour; will split the vote; will see Labour influence remain strengthened rather than be destroyed.
