Thursday, April 02, 2020

Covid-19: It's All About Maths.

Exponential Growth Defined.
Some things grow at a consistent rate. Money or the descendants of mating rabbits, for example, can grow faster and faster as the total number itself gets bigger. When growth becomes more rapid in relation to the growing total number, then it is exponential.6 Oct 2015.

Without being checked, exponential growth can rip through a population so that, in a
matter of months - weeks even - more than 50% can easily be affected by the
virus. This growth can only be stemmed by the taking of measures to break the
cycle. It is not dissimilar to to the workings of compound interest.
South Korea and Singapore have shown the world how it should be done.
In one of the more extreme scenarios - and far from an improbable one - in excess 
of 30 million could contract thevirus in the UK. With an average of one person infecting 3.5 more people, spread
rates could become beyond rapid.
I have personal contacts in two local hospitals - the reports coming back 
are scary
in the extreme. 
One very well-balanced person I know well, and accustomed to being in 
the presence 
of death, returned home from work, last week and promptly had a mental breakdown because 
of the
sheer horror of the situation at work.
Seemingly, death rates can be as low as 0.5% or as high as 5% - largely 
dependent 
on local circumstances. 
Nobody can gauge figures accurately but with a death rate at 5%, it is 
far from 
difficult to imagine 1.5 million dead as the outcome. To put that into
 perspective, that 
is double the amount of UK soldiers killed in World War One.
A death rate of 2.5%, obviously enough, would match the military death
 toll of WW1.
We must stop the spread!
Measures taken thus far are clearly preventing exponential growth, here
 in the UK.

Late news: two missionaries from son's church infected. One ill in hospital.

Email this morning from a former pastor friend telling me that he and 
wife have 
three friends desperately in need of prayer.

What is Christingle?

  https://www.christiantoday.com/article/what.is.christingle/142478.htm What is Christingle? Every year, thousands of children across the UK...