Psephology.

4,351,204 votes. That is how many UKIP took in winning the EU elections. If recent polls are to be believed, they will lose between 10% & 20% of these over the next 11 months.

So - that still means an increase of more than 250% on the last General Election BUT the turnout will almost double. So how many could they reasonably aim for? - 5.5 million? - Fewer? - More?

Inevitably, they will target certain seats very hard and try to establish a firm base in Westminster. If they can achieve that - they can look to forming a government in 2020. It is a big ask but they are on a roll at the moment. Maintaining impetus in the period up to the General Election will not be easy.