For there are only two explanations of how James Cleverly, who appeared this morning to be nailed on as a sure-fire cert for the membership ballot stage of this Tory leadership election, failed to make the final cut.
The first is that the Shadow Home Secretary, who stood to gain most from the elimination of Tom Tugendhat, a fellow moderate from the centre-Left of the Parliamentary Party, somehow not only picked up none of the latter’s 20 votes, but also lost two of his own...
...Or else that some of his supporters voted tactically for another candidate – on the assumption that Cleverly would indeed make the final cut and would then defeat this person – in order to get the contest that they wanted. And overdid it. So dragging their own man down below his competitors. And ensuring that both of them, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick – face off in the final.
As I write, the second looks to be the more convincing explanation. And Team Cleverly is left with an entire farmyards-worth of egg on its face. Were it a premiership football team, it would just have scored one of the most famous own goals in history.
So it is that a Parliamentary Party which still leans slightly Left of Conservative centre has put the most Right-wing of the available candidates into the final.
For Robert Jenrick, this result represents a Lazarus-style recovery after many assumed his campaign was down, out and over.
But the biggest winner is perhaps Kemi Badenoch, for the simple reason that what polls we have suggest that she will beat Jenrick when party members come to vote.
That’s probable – but by no means certain. Polls of Tory members are notoriously difficult to carry off accurately, and this contest still has the best part of a month to run.
Badenoch will stress her star quality and capacity to make people look at the Conservatives in a new light. Jenrick will push his tough programme and plausibility as a capable, competent team player and media performer.
It may be that the contest is decisively swung not by who makes the best case but by who drops the fewest bricks. DT. Paul Goodman.
