Whisper it, but America might be winning the Iran war
It is my pleasure to inform you that developments are tentatively beginning to favour the good guys
Jake Wallis SimonsShow biography
Published 03 October 2026 2:53pm BST
Recent weeks have seen a quiet yet steady buildup of American forces in the region Credit: Jose Luis Magana/AP
It is an iron rule of journalism that wars blaze into the global headlines, remain there for a while, then fade into the background once readers get used to them…
Think of it as the “new normal” principle; when the shock has passed, audiences adjust to a bleaker backdrop and return to their lives. From then on, only significant jolts regain their interest. (The only exception is anything involving Israel, which is a pathological obsession.)
Readers are thus often left with an impression of a conflict that is held in aspic, unaware that the deadlock is shifting on the ground. Which brings us to the Strait of Hormuz, where for months Donald Trump’s armada has been locked in an economic-military confrontation with Iran. It is my pleasure to inform you that developments are – tentatively – beginning to favour the good guys.
Speaking to reporters at the White House on Thursday, Trump was asked whether the foiled hijacking of the Flydubai aircraft on Wednesday had any connection to Iran. “I would say the answer, based on what I’m hearing, is ‘yes’, but we’re working on it right now,” he said.
What if suspicions were confirmed? “Oh, they’ll be hit very hard, don’t worry,” Trump said. “You just ask them. They know what happened. They’ll be hit very hard.” Of course, we have grown used to such bluster from the president – his recent claim that he was considering “wiping them out” made barely a ripple in the news – but this time, he might actually mean it.
Recent weeks have seen a quiet yet steady buildup of American forces in the region. A third aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, departed from San Diego last week with Carrier Strike Group 9, steaming over to join US Centcom in the Middle East.
Together with the USS George HW Bush and the USS George Washington, which are already in theatre, that is a fearsome volume of force. In addition, the USS Makin Island amphibious group – which includes the USS John P Murtha and USS Anchorage landing ships – is deploying alongside it, carrying more than 2,000 marines of the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit. In total, 9,000 additional servicemen are on their way.
The USS George Washington in the Arabian Sea, Sept 12 Credit: Ed Ou/REUTERS
It is true that Washington’s problem has long been one that force alone cannot solve. America’s overwhelming military superiority has never been in doubt, yet Tehran remains willing to endure punishment, and has the cunning to target the soft underbelly of the global economy. Seven months into this conflict, the crucial question remains one of translating American firepower into results.
The difference is that Trump’s eventual response to Ayatollah’s closure of Hormuz – to prise away the tyrant’s grip while imposing a stranglehold of his own – is slowly bearing fruit. As the US navy has become more adept at fending off Iranian attacks, more international tankers have been traversing the Strait. According to the tracker Kpoler, shipments via Hormuz and bypass routes have been delivering almost 80 per cent of pre-war flows.
Last month, Middle Eastern crude exports bounced back to their highest level since hostilities commenced, with almost 13 million barrels daily from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and others making it to market, compared to 19 million in February.
The Saudi East-West pipeline, which was damaged in a drone attack last month, is hobbling back into action, with reduced volumes making it to the Red Sea, where it is loaded onto tankers and exported.
In sharp contrast, Tehran has been unable to move any crude through Hormuz since the US imposed its maritime blockade in July. Estimates by Kpler suggest that Iranian stockpiles may run out within a fortnight, castrating an economy that is already buckling under sanctions and the toll of war.
History will damn Trump for failing to conceive of a Hormuz strategy sooner. Prior to the US blockade, Tehran was earning more daily oil revenue during the war than it had been before it. This, together with Trump’s devastatingly poor decision – under pressure from Turkey’s Islamist leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan – to cancel a Kurdish ground invasion at the last minute, deprived him of his own victory.
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Yet once the November midterms have been and gone, with Iran’s economy on its uppers and American might redoubled, Trump may have manoeuvred himself into a more commanding position in this geo-political arm-wrestle.
Stocks of regional interceptors are low. Tehran, with its back to the wall, may escalate in unexpected ways, including via terrorism on Western soil; the Houthis remain untamed on the shores of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another chokepoint; and without ground forces, and with the opposition movement still reeling from tens of thousands of deaths, the picture of an American victory remains vague. Whatever it might look like, however, it is closer than it was before. DT.
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