UK possible big winner.
Trump’s
election is a huge fillip to those in the UK who campaigned for
Brexit.
He
is openly hostile towards the EU and, having backed the Brexit vote, warned that
his presidency would offer "Brexit plus, plus, plus."
His
antipathy to the trade deals with the Pacific countries and the EU also means
that TTIP is now as dead as a dodo, while Britain would be ‘at the front of the
queue’ to negotiate a trade deal with the US.
Suddenly
the UK has more leverage in international trade talks and, perhaps, a slightly
stronger hand to play in negotiations that will follow the triggering of Article
50 next March.
It
is striking to compare the glum post-election reactions of Angela Merkel and
Francois Hollande with that of Boris Johnson, Theresa May’s foreign minister and
jester-in-chief, who on Thursday called on "fellow Europeans to snap out of this
doom and gloom and whinge-a-rama."
Lord
Marland, David Cameron’s former trade envoy, thinks that a UK-US economic
partnership would be an easy win for both May and Trump.
“Both
countries will be looking for quick-fix partners post these events and I have no
doubt that Trump, whose mother was born in Scotland ... will be looking very
favourably on economic relationships with the UK,” he said on
Friday.
Uncertainty is certain
There
is an argument that Theresa May and her Brexit ministers are getting over
excited about making friends with the new boy. But Trump’s victory vindicates
their own campaign strategy.
Barack
Obama was no more interested in Britain than he was in the rest of
Europe.
It
is no surprise to hear fellow Brexit campaigner Iain Duncan Smith enthusing
about the prospect of rebuilding the so-called ‘special relationship’ which has
been "in the freezer now for about eight years".
If
Trump’s election potentially alters the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU, it
also poses a wider and more existential problem for the European
Union.
The
EU is, despite the intentions of Monnet and others, an elite construct, and the
politics of elites is under serious attack.
In
the meantime, the next target for the anti-politics insurgency must be
France.
Only
the very brave could now bet against Marine Le Pen becoming president next
May.
Benjamin
Fox, a former reporter for EUobserver, is a
consultant with Sovereign Strategy, a London-based PR firm, and a freelance
writer
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