What almost no one mentions is that the combined support for Reform and the Conservatives would absolutely wipe the floor with Labour. Between them, the Tories and Reform get around, or just over, 50 per cent of the prospective votes with Labour on around 23 per cent. That would represent a landslide for the Right of unprecedented proportions.
Ergo, the party that is in immediate existential danger is not Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives – it is Keir Starmer’s Labour. This is going to become undeniably clear in the upcoming local elections (which is to say, in those that are allowed to go ahead) when traditional Red Wall voters swing to Reform: that is, to one of the available options on the Right.
